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yfile | 29th Sep 2009 | 組合管理 | (17 Reads)

持股 -- 00635 PLAYMATES

以前的一篇:

http://yfile.mysinablog.com/index.php?op=ViewArticle&articleId=1517083

主要持股原因: Margin of Safety

取自2009年中期報告:

資産淨值: $1,851,772,000
普通股加權平均數: 223,539,000股
NAV: $8.28/share

投資物業(i. 彩星集團大廈; ii. 半山樓; iii. 彩星工業大廈): $1,519,300,000
按公平價值計入損益賬之金融資產: $191,475,000
現金及銀行結餘: $313,792,000
銀行貸款: $145,000,000

市值: $5.06億 (29/9/2009 收市價: $2.28)

計及二零一零年十月十四日到期紅利認股權證(可合共發行45,006,018股新股份@$0.9):
權益: $0.9*45,006,018+$1,851,772,000=$1,892,277,416
股數: 223,539,000+45,006,018=268,545,018
NAV: $7.05/share

其他持股原因: 對管理層的誠信有信心, 公司持續回購, 過去數年持續派息(包括2008年下半年及2009年上半年的非常時期), 憧憬子公司玩具業務復甦

主要顧慮: 環球經濟不穏, 影響子公司玩具業務(00869)


yfile | 29th Sep 2009 | 組合管理 | (22 Reads)

Portfolio Management - Action on 29/9/2009

Portfolio 1 (100% Interests)

Sold:           02778  CHAMPION REIT..........7K @$3.19
Purchased: 02337  FORTE - H SHS..........12K @$2.24

Portfolio 2 (100% Interests)

Sold:           02778  CHAMPION REIT.........8K @$3.19
Purchased: 01813  KWG PROPERTY.........2K @$5.11
Purchased: 02337  FORTE - H SHS...........6K @$2.24


yfile | 22nd Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (33 Reads)

Peace Mark's warning signals

16th September 2008

http://webb-site.com/articles/peacemark.asp


yfile | 22nd Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (18 Reads)

Deutsche Bank's toxic derivatives

30th November 2007

http://webb-site.com/articles/toxicderivatives.asp


yfile | 22nd Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (11 Reads)

CSFB's Toxic Convertibles

8th June 2005 (updated 14-Jun-05)

http://webb-site.com/articles/toxicon.asp


yfile | 22nd Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (24 Reads)

Toxic IPOs in HK

21st March 2005
(
Updated 26th March 2005)

http://www.webb-site.com/articles/toxicIPOs.asp


yfile | 22nd Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (21 Reads)

821 -- Value Divergence

21st September 2009

What strange goings on at Value Convergence Holdings Ltd (VC, 0821) currently (but not for long) controlled by Melco International Development Ltd (Melco, 0200) which in turn is controlled by casino tycoonlet Lawrence Ho Yau Lung.

First, on 8-Sep-09, VC announced that it had conditionally agreed to place HK$300m of 2-year 1% convertible bonds via China Everbright Securities (HK) Ltd. The bonds are convertible at $1.00 per share, and if converted in the first year, the converting holder gets an option to subscribe an equal amount of bonds to replace them. Consequently up to 600m new shares could be issued, equivalent to a whopping 161.65% of the existing issued share capital. The whole deal is conditional on shareholders' approval at a meeting yet to be convened.

At 30-Jun-09, VC had net tangible assets of HK$609.1m, or about $1.64 per share. So the bond conversions at $1 would be highly dilutive to NAV. Interestingly, although the placing commission on the initial $300m issue is only 1%, VC only expects net proceeds of $285m, so there are other fees and expenses of $12m or 4%, which seems excessive. The pro forma NTA of $1194m (assuming all 600m shares are issued) amounts to about $1.23 per share.

Despite that, on resumption of trading on 9-Sep-09, the stock jumped 91.8% from $0.98 to $1.88, and closed on Friday (18-Sep-09) at $2.05.

VC announced on Friday that it had "no fewer than six" subscribers for the first $300m of bonds. It didn't name the subscribers, but one of them is China Fortune Group Ltd (0290) which announced that it is buying $100m, or one third of the issue. That company featured in a series of articles on Webb-site.com in June and July.

Also on Friday, Melco announced that it had agreed with Kim Eng Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd as agent to place its entire 43.24% stake (160.9m shares) in VC into the market on a best efforts basis at $1.92 per share, starting today, 21-Sep-09. This is even before the shareholders' meeting to consider the proposed bond issue.

Now, think about it. Why would investors buy existing shares at $1.92 per share and then vote to approve a bond issue convertible at $1.00 per share? Surely it would make more sense for the new shareholders to vote against the bond issue. Unless, of course, the new owners had also been allocated a chunk of the bond issue, in which case they would be voting to approve their own deal. Under the Listing Rules, as long as a placee holds less than 10% of VC, it is not a connected person and can vote, unless the Stock Exchange says otherwise.

But then, what would be happening? If a purchaser in the share placing has also been allocated bonds which he/it converts, then the average purchase price per share will be lower. The weighted average of the 600m shares under the bond issue and the 160.9m shares in the placing is about $1.19 per share. Melco gets out at $1.92, a premium to NAV and a huge premium to the $0.98 price before the proposed bond issue was announced, but VC only gets $1 per share, diluting the NAV of other shareholders.

It appears that the interests of Melco and VC may be diverging here. The Stock Exchange should, at the very least, require disclosure of whether any of the subscribers in the bond issue, or their respective associates, are buying shares in the sale by Melco, and if so, prohibit them from voting on the bond issue. Webb-site.com urges other shareholders to vote against the bond issue when the time comes.

© Webb-site.com, 2009


yfile | 20th Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (22 Reads)

A 100% margin loan

18th September 2009

http://webb-site.com/articles/byfordloan.asp

Here's a classic bit of non-disclosure that caught the eye of Webb-site.com this morning. Byford International Ltd (8272), which we warned readers about in June, announced that it is lending HK$24m to a BVI company called Dragoncom Holdings Limited (Dragoncom), secured only by Dragoncom's portfolio of...

"locally-listed shares and/or securities with a collective value of no less than the Loan".

Now we'll assume that by "locally-listed" they mean listed in HK, not the BVI (which lacks a stock exchange). But that isn't the problem. No broker or bank would provide a loan of 100% of the value of shares, because that would leave them exposed the moment the portfolio value went down. Given that Dragoncom might be buying risky small-caps with this money, the most it could reasonably expect to borrow from a bank or broker would be 30-50% of the portfolio value. These are not commercial terms. Naïvely or disingenuously (take your pick) the announcement says:

"The Directors are of the view that given the Loan has security and hence the repayment of Loan will be guaranteed...The Directors (including the independent non-executive directors) consider that the Loan is made on normal commercial terms... "

How can the directors possibly regard this security as adequate to guarantee repayment?

Secondly, the announcement does not disclose who owns Dragoncom. The owner of Dragoncom in effect gets a free call option on the portfolio - if the value goes up (by more than the 8% annual interest), the owner makes a gain, and if the value goes down, the owner walks away. We assume that Dragoncom has no other assets to back up its loan, since none were disclosed.

Regulatory note:
This level of disclosure is permitted by Hong Kong's lax Listing Rules, which still leave much to the imagination. When a listed company deals with a company, the owners of that company should be disclosed, and so on up the tree until we get to human owners, and if there is more than one owner, then anyone with a 10% interest at any level of the ownership tree should be disclosed.

© Webb-site.com, 2009


yfile | 16th Sep 2009 | 股玩你 | (230 Reads)

[湯財手記文章]響起警號-中國綠色食品(904)(補充@2009/9/14)

by greatsoup @ 2009-09-13 21:21:14

http://realblog.zkiz.com/greatsoup/11045

 (閱讀全文)

yfile | 15th Sep 2009 | 組合管理 | (106 Reads)

Portfolio Management (15/9/2009)

*Sorted by Market Value

Portfolio 1 (100% Interests)   
Code    Name                                         Market Value (HKD)
------------------------------------------------------------------
02728  SHINHINT...................................................6,160.00
02007  COUNTRY GARDEN......................................6,260.00
00733  HOPEFLUENT..............................................9,280.00
00123  GUANGZHOU INV CO.LTD     
00817  FRANSHION PPT     
03883  CHINA AOYUAN      
00367  CHUANG'S CONS.INTL    
00869  PLAYMATES TOYS     
00298  CHUANG'S CHINA     
04971  MB-HWL EC1012 (CASH)     
00711  CHUN WO DEV     
00983  SHUI ON CONST AND MATER.  
00927  FUJIKON IND HLDGS LTD     
00264  CHANCO INT'L     
01388  EMBRY HOLDINGS        
00398  ORIENTAL WATCH HLDGS    
00594  PLAYMATES W1010    
00410  SOHO CHINA    
02000  SIM TECH      
00754  HOPSON DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS    
00838  EVA HOLDINGS      
01155  CENTRON TELECOM    
02337  FORTE - H SHS     
02778  CHAMPION REIT      
03383  AGILE PROPERTY     
01813  KWG PROPERTY      
03900  GREENTOWN CHINA       
00272  SHUI ON LAND      
00635  PLAYMATES.............................................174,832.00

Portfolio 2 (100% Interests)
Code    Name                                         Market Value (HKD)
------------------------------------------------------------------
04971  MB-HWL EC1012 (CASH).............................4,720.00
00711  CHUN WO DEV............................................4,950.00
00594  PLAYMATES W1010.....................................5,644.80
01813  KWG PROPERTY...........................................8,040.00
00838  EVA HOLDINGS     
00869  PLAYMATES TOYS     
01155  CENTRON TELECOM       
02000  SIM TECH       
00398  ORIENTAL WATCH HLDGS      
00272  SHUI ON LAND     
00635  PLAYMATES      
02778  CHAMPION REIT    
00754  HOPSON DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS...........54,800.00

Portfolio 3 (50% Interests)
Code    Name                                         Market Value (HKD)
------------------------------------------------------------------
00594  PLAYMATES W1010....................................8,568.00
00123  GUANGZHOU INV CO.LTD    
00817  FRANSHION PPT     
00754  HOPSON DEVELOPMENT HOLDINGS   
00838  EVA HOLDINGS       
02778  CHAMPION REIT     
00983  SHUI ON CONST AND MATER.        
00927  FUJIKON IND HLDGS LTD    
03383  AGILE PROPERTY     
00398  ORIENTAL WATCH HLDGS        
02000  SIM TECH     
00410  SOHO CHINA     
01813  KWG PROPERTY     
02337  FORTE - H SHS     
03900  GREENTOWN CHINA    
00272  SHUI ON LAND      
00635  PLAYMATES.............................................133,800.00

Portfolio 4 (0% Interests, only management)
Code    Name                                         Market Value (HKD)
------------------------------------------------------------------
00264  CHANCO INT'L.........................................15,680.00
00711  CHUN WO DEV    
00272  SHUI ON LAND      
00838  EVA HOLDINGS         
01813  KWG PROPERTY        
01881  REGAL REIT     
02778  CHAMPION REIT     
02337  FORTE - H SHS      
00983  SHUI ON CONST AND MATER.   
03900  GREENTOWN CHINA.................................73,800.00


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